The Risk Factor

Two anniversary's were observed in past two weeks. Twenty-five years ago, on 17 August 1982, the first compact discs containing Richard Strauss' Alpine Symphony were mass produced. By 1986, CD players outsold record players, and by 1988, there were more CD sales then record sales. CD sales reached their peak in 2001 with 712 million sold, but pressure from other formats like MP3 has cut CD sales by 25% by 2007.

Then thirty years ago, on 24 August 1977, RCA announced a suggested retail price of $1,000 for its VBT200 VHS VCR to be marketed in the US. This price point - and a fortuitous set of circumstances that created the slogan "Four hours, $1,000, SelectaVision" explained here and here helped propel the VHS format tapes into the lead over Betamax.

" ... the technology road is bumpy... This is life in the technology lane"

And it is full of pot holes. No, that wasn't in Steve Jobs open letter to early adopters of Apple's iPhone, but it was at least implied.

Mr. Jobs had to issue the apology after thoroughly irritating customers who shelled out $599 a few months ago for their new iPhone only to learn that Apple was cutting its price by $200 to try to gain a strategic if not insurmountable market share during upcoming Christmas season.

Jobs appears to be following former HP Chairman and CEO Lewis Platt's old dictum, “We have to be willing to cannibalize what we’re doing today in order to ensure our leadership in the future. It’s counter to human nature, but you have to kill your business while it is still working.”

Investors didn't take to kindly to Jobs announcement, as they viewed it as Apple cannibalizing its earnings too soon and therefore their investments. Apple also didn't help matter much by announcing a new iPod which appears a lot like an iPhone without the calling features. Apple's stock dropped about 5% in all this week.

Probably more of an issue is that many folks who bought iPhones now think they were not only out $200, but went from being cool to being uncool. Even my local small town newspaper has an article about how much coolness that $200 bought.

When I used to live in the UK, having an A - Z guide was mandatory for getting around. The UK is one of those countries that seems to have an attitude that if you are lost, you deserve to be. My memory is that I could always find a sign telling you were leaving a county, town or village, but not that you were ever entering one.

The UK attitude towards (not) providing clear directions on road signs seems to have extended to some of its former colonies like Virginia where I now live, where having an ADC map is absolutely vital if you want to get around without wandering in circles.

Anyway, IEEE Spectrum Associate Editor Joshua Romero pointed me to a story in the London Telegraph about the proliferation of GPS navigation in the UK, and the problems they are creating in the UK. It seems that Network Rail claims that 2,000 railroad crossing and bridges are hit annually - some 6 or 7 a day - by trucks that have been directed along inappropriate roads for their size. Network Rail said that it was now mapping the UK’s low bridges and level crossings so that information could be fed into GPS navigation software.

Part of the reason is that many of the trucks are being driven by non-English speaking drivers, who rely almost exclusively on the navigation system for guidance. Network Rails says that, "We are now trialling smart signs complete with laser detectors which will tell oncoming vehicles that they won't clear the bridge ahead."

It is not only Network Rail that is having problems. Small towns and villages are finding that trucks and coaches driving down roads and country lanes are also smacking into buildings and cottages, or getting stuck and blocking local traffic. Some village councils are now posting anti-satellite navigation system signs up.

Back in 2006, the UK Department for Transport supposedly was going to develop a "star rating system" that would tell consumers how reliable GPS navigation systems were, but I am not sure of its status. Still too soon to throw out those A -Z guides just yet, I reckon.

Kyodo News agency reported Saturday that Japanese electronics maker Toshiba may withdraw its HD DVD next-generation video format. This comes after Wal-Mart announced that it would only sell only Blu-ray DVDs and hardware and no longer carry HD DVD offerings.

Toshiba's decision effectively puts the kibosh on HD DVD.

Also, midnight a year from today, analog TV ends, and digital TV takes over the US. The US Congress created the TV Converter Box Coupon Program for households wishing to keep using their analog TV sets after February 17, 2009. The Program allows U.S. households to www.dtv2009.gov to get yours), each worth $40, that can be applied toward the cost of eligible converter boxes.

So now you can feel safe to invest in Blue-ray discs to watch on your new digital TV.

UPDATE: It is now official - Toshiba is scrapping its HD DVDs, a little more than a month after it released its second generation players. So much for its "early lead" in the market place "proving the strength of the HD DVD format."